Today's C Fund guess & sometimes a little market commentary
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(This post was updated on )
Because the C Fund closely tracks the performance of the S&P 500 index, it's possible to come up with a fairly close guess as to what the number will be an hour or two before it's posted on the TSP site.
I'm guessing that tonight's C Fund number will be right around $14.09, which is down about 26 cents from Friday's figure. The market got whacked again today, and it's beginning to look as if it may "test" the lows that the market touched a few weeks back.   Button, button, who's got a button?? |
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(This post was updated on )
In reply to this post
by manOman
The market gained back more than it lost yesterday, so we should get a nice boost in the stock funds when they come out tonight. The price of oil continues to drop, which though it helps the market will probably affect our next EMA adjustment...
My best guess is that the C Fund will be very close to $14.42. I see there are some questions, but I may not be around much tonight - checking on earthquake in CA. Button, button, who's got a button?? |
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The market had a nice run-up this morning, but was back down to near unchanged at 2:00. Then it bounced back to finish up nicely. According to my calculations, the C Fund should come in at a bit over $14.66 tonight.
Button, button, who's got a button?? |
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In reply to this post
by misskristy
misskristy, thanks for your confidence in my abilities, but for several reasons, I have vowed that I would not offer specific financial advice to individuals.
My best general advice is for you to learn all you can about 401s, IRAs & retirement in general. That way, YOU will be able to determine the best course for yourself. That is a good thing, because YOU are the one who best knows yourself. Here's the link for general TSP information: http://tsp.gov/features/index.html And here are some frequently asked questions: http://tsp.gov/faq/index.html The problem with taking advice from an "expert" is that if YOU don't understand why the advice is being given, you won't know when the advice is no longer valid. Things change, especially in the financial markets, so good advice today is terrible advice tomorrow. I don't want to be responsible for giving anyone "terrible" advice. Button, button, who's got a button?? |
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manoman very good answer!
Don't ya just love a sexy caveman? I have out a new album in stores soon "I'm Too Sexy For My Cave"
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In reply to this post
by manOman
The market wasn't doing too badly today, but right around 3:00, it went into a dive.
I'm guessing the C fund went back down to $13.47 - we shouldn't have to wait long to find out. Button, button, who's got a button?? |
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The market wobbled around today, mostly under yesterday's close, and finally settled at -51.7 on the Dow. The S&P close indicates our C Fund shares should be around $14.39 tonight, down about 8 cents. Interestingly, the S fund probably didn't drop nearly as much. possibly to around $18.11 (can't guarantee that number, but it should be close).
The big news items I heard were the MONSTER losses at General Motors, and that the jobs report for last month wasn't quite as bad as anticipated (and some previous figures were revised up). The price of oil seemed to be moving up, which tends to put downward pressure on the market. A lot of times going into the weekend, the market will back off a bit if there's uncertainty - some traders don't want to be holding stocks if some really bad news breaks over the weekend. I just now reviewed my previous guesses, and I'm batting 1,000. Last night's guess of the C fund just beat the official release by about 5 minutes. Everyone have a great weekend. Button, button, who's got a button?? |
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manOman you sure is good at this stuff you should be a stockbroker!
 Don't ya just love a sexy caveman? I have out a new album in stores soon "I'm Too Sexy For My Cave"
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In reply to this post
by manOman
The market headed down right away today, then got all the way back to even just before 3 PM. Unfortunately, it didn't keep going, it dropped back to near today's low (S&P 1249 finish).
That would drop our C Fund about another 13 cents, to around $14.265. It looks like the S Fund really got walloped (it'll probably drop 35-40 cents), and even the F Fund dropped, so the only safe haven was the G. Today's good news MAY have been the drop in the price of oil. It dipped below $120, which is a BIG drop considering it was $147 a month or so ago. On pabak's QT board for TSP, I mentioned a few days ago that the 200-day moving average for oil was around $107, and it was BARELY POSSIBLE that the market might go down & "test" that level. In the TSPtalk guy's commentary today, I noticed he was looking at that 200-day moving average too, though it has now moved up to the $109-110 range. It's hard to correlate gas prices exactly with oil prices, but if oil fell to that level, we'd certainly be paying less for a gallon of gas - right now in OH, the price is $3.59/gallon - not good, but better than $4.29... Here's a link to the chart for oil prices if anyone wants to follow it: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?c=$wtic Button, button, who's got a button?? |
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wOw!! The stock market appeared to be anticipating good things from the Federal Reserve meeting today, [the Fed held interest rates steady, and didn't warn too badly on inflation] and it didn't hurt that oil prices continued to drop. I saw a report that the ISM reading for last month was better than expected, and Proctor & Gamble had good earnings. Foreign markets were up, which helped.
At any rate, the large-cap (Dow and S&P) indexes did a lot better that the small-caps. It looks as if the C Fund will jump back up to $14.673, which, if I'm right, would be the highest reading since June 25. Button, button, who's got a button?? |
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I figured after yesterday's big jump, the market would probably fall back today, but it actually ended UP around 40 points on the Dow. The S&P 500 made it to 1289 (we're hoping for it to break 1300), which should bring the C fund share price up to about $14.723 tonight. That's only about a 5 cent gain, but hey, we'll take it.
The market was down this morning, but oil prices dropped a bit, and the tech sector was doing very well due to decent earnings from Cisco (the mother of all tech stocks). The outperformance of the tech stocks should power the S fund up to around 18.26-18.27 tonight (+ 15 cents or more) The T&A gurus will be watching for a "continuation" of this move up, or a "reversal" back to the downtrend we've been in for several months now. Should be interesting (OK, I hear all those yawns out there LOL) Button, button, who's got a button?? |
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I heard an unemployment number** that scared the bejeezus out of me today, and evidently the market didn't exactly like it either. Oil prices crept back up a bit, and financial giant AIG lost something over $5 Billion (makes the USPS look like pikers).
The Dow gave back 224 points, and the drop in the S&P 500 should cut the value of a C fund share back to 14.467. I'm heading out on vacation as soon as I get back tomorrow, so no updates for a while (big whoop, right?) I hope to be back in time to do a final calculation on the upcoming COLA (figures will be out Aug 14). **Note that there was a reason given, at least in part, for the rise. It seems that the Labor Department did some work encouraging people to file for unemployment benefits, so the number MAY have been skewed. Button, button, who's got a button?? |
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The market zoomed up today after Fed chairman Bernanke said some nice things. I'm figuring the C fund, which hit $14.6177 yesterday will be around $14.783 tonight, a nice little 16 1/2 cent gain.
There are a lot of worrisome things going on, so it's quite possible that the market will give back today's gain next week, but it was nice to see the Dow do a 3-digit gain instead of a 3-digit loss for a change. Button, button, who's got a button?? |
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From my post on Friday:
"There are a lot of worrisome things going on, so it's quite possible that the market will give back today's gain next week..." Well, it looks like it only took ONE DAY for the market to give back Friday's gains (and then some). According to my quick calculation, the C fund sank to $14.495 today, down around 29 cents from Friday. Curses!! The "reasons" I heard that the market fell today were Frannie Mac & Freddie Mae (another couple of quasi-governmental outfits pretending to be "companies" like the USPS), and worries over Lehman Bros and the rest of the financial sector. Button, button, who's got a button?? |
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C fund looks like it went up about 5.35 cents today, which would put it at around $14.5485.
Button, button, who's got a button?? |
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Looks as if the C fund was up almost 12 cents today. I came up with $14.665 when I ran the numbers.
Most of the experts I follow have been looking for a drop, so these last 2 days of up moves might be a head fake. I did hear that durable goods orders came in real good today, but they were pumped up by aircraft orders. Button, button, who's got a button?? |
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It looks as if we're going to go up almost 22 cents in the C fund tonight. The share price should be about $14.885.
Today's news that the revised GNP was better than first thought really helped out the market. There is usually an upward bias going into the Labor Day holiday also. Button, button, who's got a button?? |
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Today, the market gave back almost all of yesterday's gains, and it looks like the C fund dropped 20+ cents to somewhere around $14.6833.
sinister minister, believe it or not, I was UP 2% in the TSP for the first 6 months of 2008. Since then, though, I've been getting whacked. The new transfer rule is keeping me from getting in & out like I was, and I haven't adjusted very well. Button, button, who's got a button?? |
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