EMA projection
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In reply to this post
by manOman
The consumer price index for December came out today, and the Transportation component fell even further from November's number! IF our November EMA had been figured using December's number, the EMA rate would have dropped to 50 cents per mile! Fortunately, our next EMA adjustment will be calculated using the February '09 figure, which will hopefully be higher than December's number.
Here is a list of the transportation figures for this year: Jan 190.918 Feb 190.639 EMA = 57 cents Mar 195.710 Apr 199.556 May 206.757 EMA = 62 cents Jun 213.633 Jul 214.533 Aug 207.796 EMA = 65 cents Sep 204.785 Oct 192.198 Nov 170.87 EMA = 53 cents Dec 160.914   Button, button, who's got a button?? |
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Looks like I've been asleep at the wheel on this one. The CPI for February came out last week, and though I looked at the possible effect on our COLA, I totally forgot that February is the trigger month for EMA!!!!
Using the formula, and the transportation index for Feb., I get 165.976/139 X 43.5 cents = 51.94 cents, which I assume rounds to 52 cents. In other words, it looks as if our EMA has dropped another penny. Jan 190.918 Feb 190.639 EMA = 57 cents Mar 195.710 Apr 199.556 May 206.757 EMA = 62 cents Jun 213.633 Jul 214.533 Aug 207.796 EMA = 65 cents Sep 204.785 Oct 192.198 Nov 170.87 EMA = 53 cents Dec 160.914 2009 Jan 163.215 Feb 165.976 EMA = 52 cents (according to my math, which could be wrong) It's interesting to me that I haven't seen or heard anything on EMA from our ASSn about this. Maybe they were busy signing MOU's to help out the USPS, and couldn't be bothered. Finally, someone please REMIND ME to do the math for the next adjustment - remember, I'm one OLD codger. LOL Button, button, who's got a button?? |
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The CPI for May came out this morning, and the Transportation component came in at 173.055.
173/139 = 1.2446. 1.2446 X 43.5 = ~ 54 cents. I'm fairly certain that this will be our new EMA rate, though my figure has been 1/2 cent high on occasion (I'm assuming from rounding errors). The previous EMA was 51.5 cents, so this is an increase, though the price of gasoline has DOUBLED in our area over the past few months. On the bright side, our next EMA adjustment (Sep, based on Aug figures) will include a hike in the base rate. Button, button, who's got a button?? |
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RogerR - many thanks for checking the #'s!! You're right - I'm wrong. I probably could plead senility.
Anyhow, I looked at the BLS series for Private Transportation, and the figure for May is indeed 169.975. The number I saw for the base period Nov 1995, though was 136.9. 169.975/136.9 = 1.2416. 1.2416 X 43.5 = 54.01 Here's the correct series to calculate the EMA changes (hopefully): 2008 Jan 188.093 Feb 187.762 EMA = 57 Mar 192.740 Apr 196.641 May 203.781 EMA = 62 June 210.423 July 211.201 Aug 204.348 EMA = 65 Sep 201.476 Oct 188.871 Nov 167.301 EMA =52 Dec 157.272 2009 Jan 159.719 Feb 162.645 EMA = 51.5 Mar 162.659 Apr 165.299 May 169.957 EMA = 54 Once you get the right CPI series, this is a fairly simple calculation, and my original intent was to try to embarrass our union into getting us the number on a more timely basis. I started listing the figures in hopes that someone would do the computation in the future when I go off to that big rural route in the sky. At any rate, RogerR, it looks to me as if YOU are more than capable!! Aside from the computation, what our assn needs to address is whether the EMA adequately covers the costs rural carriers incur in using a POV to deliver their route. Starting with the adjustment triggered by the August figures, the EMA base will increase by 2 1/2 cents, which will have the effect of increasing the EMA by around 3 cents. Button, button, who's got a button?? |
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The next EMA change won't be for 2 months (after the Aug #'s are released in Sep), but I was looking at the figures for the COLA, and thought I'd check the series used to determine the EMA. The June figure was up nicely (gas prices went up), and IF the EMA was figured using June's #, the EMA would be around 57 cents. Should the figures for July & Aug come in at or above June's #, we'll be looking at an EMA of over 60 cents (remember, the base rate goes up in Aug). Happy motoring!
2009 Jan 159.719 Feb 162.645 EMA = 51.5 Mar 162.659 Apr 165.299 May 169.957 EMA = 54 June 178.734 Button, button, who's got a button?? |
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The figure used to determine our next EMA increase (it will increase), will be released on Sep 16. Yesterday, the figure for July was released, and it was down from June's number, but not by much. My guess is that August's number will be up from July's (based on gas prices increases so far this month). We won't know for sure for another month, but look for an EMA of around 59-61 cents. Hopefully, I'll be around to do the numbers then.
2009 Jan 159.719 Feb 162.645 EMA = 51.5 Mar 162.659 Apr 165.299 May 169.957 EMA = 54 June 178.734 July 177.197 Aug EMA = ?? Button, button, who's got a button?? |
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PT, I'm happy I got it right, but I'm even happier that the NRLCA has decided to give us this information in a more timely manner. Maybe the info.net message is getting through to them!
Button, button, who's got a button?? |
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There was a resolution about this at the Convention. I thought it was agreed that they would post new EMA rates on the website ASAP.
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