EMA projection

[manOman]

The Transportation component of the CPI for October, which was released today, came in at 192.198. Our next EMA adjustment will be calculated using the figure from November, but it's possible to get an idea by using today's figure.

The formula is 192.198/139 X 43.5 cents or 60 cents.

In other words, unless there is a huge move up in the transportation component next month, we'll probably be seeing a drop in the EMA since it is now at 65 cents.

Here is a list of the transportation figures for this year:

Jan 190.918
Feb 190.639
Mar 195.710
Apr 199.556
May 206.757
Jun 213.633
Jul 214.533
Aug 207.796
Sep 204.785
Oct 192.198

As you can see, the trend for the last four months is down. Should the transportation component continue to fall in November (remember, the month is already more than 1/2 over, and gas has continued to fall), we could see a figure somewhere in the range of 56 - 59 cents for the EMA.

[manOman]

Just a head's up that the US will release the Consumer Price Index tomorrow morning at 8:30. This release will also contain the Transportation Index which is used to calculate the next change in our EMA. Given the continued drop in the price of gasoline, I'm guessing that the new EMA figure will probably come in UNDER 60 cents (it's currently 65 cents/mile), and possibly as low as 55 cents. The NRLCA site has gotten a lot faster at getting this figure out recently, so we could know what it is before I get a chance to calculate it tomorrow night (especially since I'm expecting to get buried in parcels tomorrow.

For an idea of how the index will affect our EMA, look at the previous message that this one is linked to.

An index reading of /// would result in an EMA of (approximately)

192 /// 60 cents

189 /// 59 cents

186 /// 58 cents

183 /// 57 cents

179 /// 56 cents

[*SUPERsub*]

MAN....I Love you! YOu are freakin GREAT!!! nothing like a man thats good at math to keep us up on the latest!!! that sucks tho...we seem to see it go up in penny increments...watch it drop by a dime!!! lmao...oh well...thats life!

[manOman]

OOPS!

Looks like the CPI is coming out TOMORROW at 8:30am:

http://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/200812_sched.htm

[manOman]

HOLY CRAP!!

The figure for the transportation component of the CPI for November is showing at 170.870

I didn't go down that far since I didn't think it could fall that much.  I just did a quick calculation, and came up with a new EMA of 53.5 cents!! I haven't had time to check that for accuracy, but I'm pretty sure it's in the ballpark. I see the NRLCA site hasn't come out with a figure yet.

The Fed surprised the market with a bigger cut than anticipated, and I'm working on stocks right now, but I'll be back later with an EMA figure and a projection from today's numbers on our next COLA (hint: think zero)

manOman!!!

[Postaltexan]

Whoa mano, I wasnt expecting that big of a drop either...   Thanks for keeping us updated tho...

On Tue, Dec 16, 2008 at 3:09 PM, manOman (via Nabble) <[hidden email]> wrote:

HOLY CRAP!!

The figure for the transportation component of the CPI for November is showing at 170.870

I didn't go down that far since I didn't think it could fall that much.  I just did a quick calculation, and came up with a new EMA of 53.5 cents!! I haven't had time to check that for accuracy, but I'm pretty sure it's in the ballpark. I see the NRLCA site hasn't come out with a figure yet.

The Fed surprised the market with a bigger cut than anticipated, and I'm working on stocks right now, but I'll be back later with an EMA figure and a projection from today's numbers on our next COLA (hint: think zero)

manOman!!!

Be sure and visit my website!!

http://ruralinfo.net

[manOman]

PT, if my figure of 53.5 cents is correct (I think I'm within a half cent), I'll be losing about $5 a day in EMA.

[Postaltexan]

Whoa, that is even worse... Yikes...  I am scared to figure mine....

On Tue, Dec 16, 2008 at 3:47 PM, manOman (via Nabble) <[hidden email]> wrote:

PT, if my figure of 53.5 cents is correct (I think I'm within a half cent), I'll be losing about $5 a day in EMA.

Be sure and visit my website!!

http://ruralinfo.net

[gjtrisa]

If your projection is correct it is less than the .55 cents the IRS is allowing for their 2009 Mileage rate.

 

 

 

In a message dated 12/16/08 14:48:01 Mountain Standard Time, [hidden email] writes:

PT, if my figure of 53.5 cents is correct (I think I'm within a half cent), I'll be losing about $5 a day in EMA.

 

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[manOman]

<<<<If your projection is correct it is less than the .55 cents the IRS is allowing for their 2009 Mileage rate.>>>>

gj, I guess it's possible that there's a provision to keep the rate from falling too much, or maybe the NRLCA is talking with the USPS as we speak to "adjust" this number - I do seem to recall that the COLA is set up so that a drop in the CPI doesn't cause our COLA to drop. At any rate, I guess we'll know when the "official" number comes out...

[gjtrisa]

This is the information on the IRS website on their mileage rates.  I hope the NRLCA is negotiating with the USPS so the EMA does not fall below the IRS standard mileage rate again. http://www.irs.gov/newsroom/article/0,,id=200505,00.html IRS Announces 2009 Standard Mileage Rates
IR-2008-131, Nov. 24, 2008 WASHINGTON — The Internal Revenue Service today issued the 2009 optional standard mileage rates used to calculate the deductible costs of operating an automobile for business, charitable, medical or moving purposes. Beginning on Jan. 1, 2009, the standard mileage rates for the use of a car (also vans, pickups or panel trucks) will be: 55 cents per mile for business miles driven 24 cents per mile driven for medical or moving purposes 14 cents per mile driven in service of charitable organizations The new rates for business, medical and moving purposes are slightly lower than rates for the second half of 2008 that were raised by a special adjustment mid-year in response to a spike in gasoline prices. The rate for charitable purposes is set by law and is unchanged from 2008. The business mileage rate was 50.5 cents in the first half of 2008 and 58.5 cents in the second half. The medical and moving rate was 19 cents in the first half and 27 cents in the second half. The mileage rates for 2009 reflect generally higher transportation costs compared to a year ago, but the rates also factor in the recent reversal of rising gasoline prices. While gasoline is a significant factor in the mileage rate, other fixed and variable costs, such as depreciation, enter the calculation. The standard mileage rate for business is based on an annual study of the fixed and variable costs of operating an automobile. The rate for medical and moving purposes is based on the variable costs as determined by the same study. Independent contractor Runzheimer International conducted the study. A taxpayer may not use the business standard mileage rate for a vehicle after using any depreciation method under the Modified Accelerated Cost Recovery System (MACRS) or after claiming a Section 179 deduction for that vehicle. In addition, the business standard mileage rate cannot be used for any vehicle used for hire or for more than four vehicles used simultaneously. Taxpayers always have the option of calculating the actual costs of using their vehicle rather than using the standard mileage rates. Revenue Procedure 2008-72 contains additional information on these standard mileage rates. Subscribe to IRS Newswire

Accessibility |  FirstGov.gov |  Freedom of Information A

 

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[ticked off]

I'm hearing it's going to be 53 cents per mile.

[Postaltexan]

Mano, you were right... It is 53 cents..  They finally released the charts..

http://n2.nabble.com/EMA-decreases-to-53-cents-per-mile-effective-Jan.-3rd%2C-2009-td2089409ef581397.html

[manOman]

PT, I never did check over my initial figures, but I was pretty confident my original calculation of 53.5 cents would be within 1/2 cent of the final number.  I was also correct that this would whack $5 a day off my EMA...


HAPPY NEW YEAR FROM THE USPS & OUR ASSn

Next thing you know, we'll be "down" for the count.

[gjtrisa]

Is there a bottom to the EMA, in other words, it can only drop to a minimum of 46 cents a mile or something like that?

 

 

 

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[sinister minister]

In light of the new "adjusted" EMA and given that when all of the BILLIONS that have and will be injected into the economy put inflation into supersonic, lets hope that COLA is not negotiated away.  That could be our saving grace for the future.  Mano, what are your thoughts??

[Wave]

[RCA] COLA, what COLA?  Oh that tiny sum I get when our contract expires. [/RCA]

[manOman]

gjtrisa, the base EMA rate right now is 43.5 cents. In Aug of 2009, it will increase to 46 cents. It is theoretically possible (but unlikely) that the EMA would drop below the base rate  - The transportation component of CPI-W would have to drop below 139 for that to happen (it's currently 170.87)

[Falcon57]

I noticed as soon as the EMA rate for those using their own vehicles for delivery, that the price of gas at the pump in my area went up a least 10 cents.   Hmmmm!

[macattack33]

And going up and up!  Geez, it took so long to get the EMA to where it was, and with a blink of an eye, POOF, it's gone!  Does anybody here keep track of their mileage on a daily basis?  My accountant told me to do so, because combined with the actual price of gas, repairs and maintenance, you could actually receive an additional tax credit.  I'm just starting to do this this year, and am curious if anybody has experience with this.